Hanoi, Mar 27: Farmers across the world are feeling the impact of the Iran war as gas prices surge and fertiliser supplies shrink, largely due to Tehran’s near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US and Israeli strikes.
The shortage is putting the livelihoods of farmers—especially in developing countries already grappling with rising temperatures and erratic weather—under increased strain, and could drive up food prices globally.
The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere depend heavily on fertiliser imports from the Gulf, and the crisis comes just as the planting season begins, said Carl Skau, Deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme.
“In the worst case, this could lead to lower yields and crop failures next season. In the best case, higher input costs will be reflected in food prices next year,” he said.
War disrupts supply of key nutrients
Iran’s restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital passage that handles about a fifth of global oil and nearly a third of fertiliser trade—have significantly impacted supplies.
Nitrogen and phosphate, two essential fertiliser nutrients, are under immediate pressure. Nitrogen supplies, particularly urea—the most widely traded fertiliser—have been hit hardest due to shipping delays and soaring liquefied natural gas prices, a key input.
The conflict has disrupted nearly 30 per cent of global urea trade, according to Chris Lawson of CRU Group. Some countries are already facing acute shortages. For instance, Ethiopia relies on the Gulf for over 90 per cent of its nitrogen fertiliser, a supply chain that was already under strain before the war.
“The planting season is now, and fertiliser isn’t available,” said Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas.
Phosphate supplies are also under stress. Saudi Arabia produces about one-fifth of the world’s phosphate fertiliser, while the region exports over 40 per cent of global sulfur—a key ingredient derived from oil and gas refining.
Even after the conflict ends, shipments may not resume immediately, as producers will require security guarantees and face rising insurance costs, said Owen Gooch of Argus Consulting Services.
“The global food system is fragile and depends on stable fertiliser supply chains,” said Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International.
Shortages hit at a critical time
Fertilisers are typically applied just before or during planting. Delays at this stage can affect early crop growth and reduce yields, even if supplies improve later.
The impact is already being felt in the United States and Europe, where the planting season is underway, and is expected to hit Asia in the coming months.
Farmers may be forced to switch to less fertiliser-intensive crops or reduce usage, which could further lower yields and push up food prices.
Other major producers are unlikely to fully offset the shortfall. China is prioritising domestic supply, while Russia’s fertiliser plants are already operating near full capacity.
Developing nations most vulnerable
The disruptions are particularly severe in Africa, where many farmers depend on fertiliser imports from the Middle East and Russia.
In East Africa, early heavy rains have left farmers with a narrow window to prepare fields and apply fertiliser. Shortages and rising prices are forcing farmers to use less, reducing yields. Even brief delays can cut maize output by around 4 per cent in a season.
Experts say governments can mitigate the crisis through subsidies, boosting domestic production, and regulating exports. (Agency)
