Srinagar, Mar 5: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh consecutive winter with below-normal rainfall, a trend experts attribute to a climate-driven shift in the region’s seasonal precipitation patterns.
According to the Meteorological Department, the December 2025 to February 2026 season ended 65 percent below normal, with 100.6 mm of precipitation recorded against a seasonal average of 284.9 mm.
“This is the seventh consecutive winter that has ended in deficit,” said Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar. “Such persistence over seven years is highly unusual and indicates a clear shift in winter precipitation patterns, consistent with broader climate change signals.”
Experts link the prolonged precipitation deficit to climate change and the weakening of Western Disturbances, the weather systems responsible for most winter rain and snow in the region.
In Kashmir, winter officially begins in December, with the 40-day period from December 21 to January 29—locally known as Chilai Kalan or “the large cold”—being the harshest phase. It is followed by the milder Chilai Khurd (“small cold”) and a 10-day transition called Chilai Bacha (“baby cold”).
Since 2019-20, each winter has ended below normal:
-
2019-20: 20% deficit
-
2020-21: 37% deficit
-
2021-22: 8% deficit
-
2022-23: 34% deficit
-
2023-24: 54% deficit
-
2024-25: 45% deficit
-
2025-26: 65% deficit
“The striking feature is the uninterrupted sequence,” Ahmad said. “We have not recorded a single normal or surplus winter in this period.” He added that the decline is largely tied to the weakening and shifting track of Western Disturbances.
“In recent years, fewer Western Disturbances have reached the region, and those that do are weaker and shorter in duration,” Ahmad explained. “Climate change is influencing large-scale atmospheric circulation, which in turn affects these systems.”
December 2025 recorded a 78 percent deficit, January 2026 was 23 percent below normal, and February 2026 saw an 89 percent shortfall, sharply reducing snowfall during peak winter weeks.
“February’s collapse ensured the season would rank among the driest on record,” said Faizan Keng, an independent weather forecaster. “The snow deficit during the core winter phase is particularly concerning.”
Earlier winters showed greater variability, including surpluses of 29% in 2016-17 and 36% in 2018-19. “That contrast makes the post-2019 drying trend very clear,” Keng noted.
Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a hydrologist at the National Institute of Hydrology, said the repeated shortfalls align with warming trends across the western Himalayas. “Reduced snowfall limits groundwater recharge, increases glacier stress, and gradually shifts the region from temporary drought toward long-term water scarcity,” he warned.
Climatologist Sonam Lotus highlighted that the snowfall deficit extends across the western Himalayas, including J&K, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. “This February was the driest and warmest in the last 47 years. It is a clear manifestation of climate change and fewer, weaker Western Disturbances,” he said.
Experts emphasize that this seven-year stretch of deficient winters underscores the growing vulnerability of a region where snow accumulation traditionally sustains rivers, agriculture, and drinking water supplies.
“Seven consecutive deficient winters are not normal,” Ahmad concluded. “They reflect a changing climate reality that the region must prepare for.” (Agency)
