Doctors at the National Institute of Mental Health & Neurosciences (Nimhans) believed that after the Lockdown 4, COVID-19 cases will increase further and India will enter the phase of community transmission.As the government is expected to extend COVID-19 induced lockdown for another two weeks across the country, scientists and doctors are busy debating as to when India will
witness the apex of coronavirus pandemic. The peak of any infection arrives when the affected cases reach the highest level and then start decreasing. By December-end, half of India’s population is likely to be infected with the virus, but the good news
is that 90 per cent of them will not even know that they have got the infection,” he added.“It’s only 5-10 per cent of cases
that will have to be treated with high-flow oxygen and only 5 per cent would require ventilator support,” he added.Dr Ravi said that with the Lockdown 4.0 ending in the next few days, it is important for the
states to be fully geared up with medical infrastructure to handle the increase in cases, especially those which will require intensive medical care and treatment.To prepare the states to handle the spike, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR),
under the direction from the Prime Minister, has directed all the states to have at least two Covid-19 testing laboratories in each district.Karnataka on Wednesday became the first state in the country to reach the target of 60 laboratories.
However, Authorities said that 90 percent of these people will not even know that they have are coronavirus positive because most of the people do not show any symptoms, and only 5 percent in critical condition are admitted to hospital. If merely 5 percent of the 67 crore people in India fell seriously ill, this figure would be around 30 million.
The question arises that do we have healthcare facilities ready to tackle this situation. There are only 1,30,000 hospital beds available for the treatment of COVID-19 patients in India. In the coming days, hospitals will not have beds to admit patients and the same situation is currently being faced by many states. The situation is worse in rural India.
As of March 2019, there are only 16,613 primary health centers in rural India, and of these only 6,733 health centers work 24X7. Notably, 12,760 health centers have only 4 or more beds available. Rural India faces the crisis of community health centers as there are only 5,335 such centers in the country.
Speaking on the mortality rate in the country, Dr Ravi said that it ranged between 3 and 4 per cent, with Gujarat recording the highest mortality rate at 6 per cent.“We will have to wait for the vaccine till March next year. People will learn to live with
COVID-19, with all necessary precautions and preventive measures. The novel coronavirus is not as deadly as Ebola, MERS and SARS,” he said.